Some worrying developments

Some worrying developments By Tariq Fatemi
Thursday, 17 Dec, 2009 10:00 AM PST
Two events in the past fortnight represent worrying developments for Pakistan’s national security establishment. The first was President Obama’s new Afghan strategy, unveiled on Dec 1, in which the president approved the dispatch of an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan.
More importantly, Obama declared that US success in the war on terror was ‘inextricably linked to our partnership with Pakistan.’
His strategy was, however, all military, with barely a mention of a political plan. The Americans in Afghanistan are seen increasingly as foreign occupiers, while the Taliban have donned the mantle of Pakhtun nationalism. But where is the plan to bring those who matter on board?
The new strategy is woven around conflicting compromises that includes accepting Gen Stanley McChrystal’s request for more troops, while rejecting an open-ended commitment. In publicly calling for an unrealistic and ill-advised time frame of 18 months for the commencement of withdrawal, Obama has placed his generals on notice that having accepted their advice, he will brook no excuses, nor accept alibis.
But having made this commitment, what measures can one expect from the administration to eliminate Al Qaida and weaken the Taliban? Undoubtedly, it will be Pakistan where henceforth the ‘buck stops,’ and which will be held responsible for America’s failure in Afghanistan.
This is also confirmed by inspired leakages that the CIA has been authorised to expand its operations in Pakistan, to include larger and more frequent drone attacks in Balochistan as well. The justification for it is hinted at in Obama’s declaration that the US ‘must deny Al Qaida a safe haven,’ and his warning that the US ‘cannot tolerate a safe haven for terrorists whose location is known and whose intentions are clear.’
Obama raised the level of concern when he claimed that the stakes are ‘even higher within a nuclear-armed Pakistan,’ while reiterating that ‘a central plank of my foreign policy would be to secure loose nuclear materials from terrorists.’ Is the president implying that elements within our nuclear establishment are in cahoots with the extremists?
Secretary Hillary Clinton has made it clear that the US would also hold us ‘to a different standard than the one that it had met in the past,’ while warning that what Pakistan has done ‘is not enough.’ Defence Secretary Robert Gates ratcheted up the pressure further when he warned that Al Qaida would try to provoke a war between India and Pakistan with the aim of destabilising Pakistan and gaining access to its nuclear arsenal.
But if the Americans are supposed to start withdrawing their troops in less than two years, would Pakistan not be justified in hedging its bets? After all, if we are to live next to a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan, why annoy them? Even more worrying is the absence of evidence of US willingness to use its influence to bring India back to the negotiating table, or even of asking it to end its alleged interference in Fata and Balochistan.
In such a scenario, would Pakistan not be justified in wondering why it should ‘play ball’ with the US? This does not, however, mean that we can be complacent about militancy at home. It is not only the world that is no longer willing to ignore our transgressions; terrorism is truly a cancer that threatens to destroy our country.
Moreover, lest anyone take Obama to be a pacifist, in his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech, he postulated a new doctrine of a ‘just war,’ declaring that ‘war is sometimes necessary,’ and can go ‘beyond self-defence or the defence of one nation,’ so long as the restoration of peace is the real goal.
Obama essentially echoed what he had stated in a speech to the Illinois state legislature in 2002: ‘I am not opposed to all wars, I am opposed to dumb wars.’ Taken along with his new Afghan strategy, his prize acceptance speech seeks not only to justify recent American military adventures, but to wrap them in a moral cloak.
While Obama’s new strategy deserves a dispassionate analysis, no less important is the likely result of the Indian prime minister’s diplomatic initiatives to reinforce India’s ties with the US and Russia.
Within a fortnight, New Delhi has notched up two major diplomatic successes. Last month, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was the first state guest of the Obama administration, where he was able to get a reaffirmation of the US-India ‘global strategic partnership.’ Though he could not obtain an irrevocable commitment regarding the provision of advanced enrichment and reprocessing technologies, he did achieve success on the issue of counterterrorism.
The two countries expressed their ‘grave concern’ over the continuing terrorist threat ‘emanating from India’s neighbourhood,’ while agreeing that ‘resolute and credible steps be taken to eliminate safe havens and sanctuaries that provide shelter to terrorists and their activities.’
Also surprising was US appreciation for India’s role in Afghanistan. This, after Pakistan’s claim that the administration had been asked to use its influence to urge India to reduce its presence in Afghanistan!
Soon thereafter, the Indian prime minister went on an official visit to Moscow, where the two countries signed important agreements, including one on cooperation in civilian nuclear energy. Thus, without having signed the NPT or accepted related obligations, India is now the recipient of nuclear technology from major powers. So much for the West’s ‘moral’ opposition to the Iranian nuclear programme.
Pakistan has officially expressed its concern over the signing of the Indo-Russian civil nuclear deal, claiming that it has a legitimate interest in ensuring that strategic peace in South Asia is maintained. Recalling recent statements from New Delhi from where hints have emanated about the waging of a limited war with Pakistan, our officials have warned that Pakistan cannot remain oblivious to these developments.
This is welcome but more skilful and imaginative diplomacy is required to confront the mounting challenges on our eastern and western frontiers, particularly in negotiations with the US and in rebuilding relations with Russia.
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/14-some-worrying-developments-zj-03

Opposition hails decision on NRO

Thursday, 17 Dec, 2009 04:30 AM PST
LAHORE: Opposition leaders have welcomed the Supreme Court decision on striking down the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) and demand resignation of all public offices holders who benefited from the ordinance.
Pakistan People’s Party leaders say they will discuss the issue in its central executive committee meeting scheduled for Saturday (Dec 19) in Islamabad.
Pakistan Muslim League-N’s (PML-N) Khwaja Asif says the verdict has put at stake credibility of the politicians who benefited from the NRO as well as of the government.
He said that in his personal opinion, President Asif Zardari and others should resign from their offices. He said these people must not take cover of immunity under various laws and should dissociate themselves from the power corridors.
Their sacrifice, he said, would improve credibility of politicians. He said the PPP leadership must not hesitate in taking the bold decision as their party was in power and they could stage a comeback after getting a clean bill of health from courts of law.
Tehrik-i-Insaaf Chairman Imran Khan says as President Zardari has lost moral grounds to rule the country, he should vacate Presidency.
He said Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani should take charge of all the affairs and seek resignations from his cabinet members who had benefited from the NRO. He sought mid-term polls to allow the masses give their verdict on the performance of the ruling parties.
“The party believes in institutions and will not react emotionally to the court verdict and its resultant consequences,” PPP Punjab Chief Rana Aftab Ahmad Khan said, adding that the party’s CEC would meet on Saturday to discuss the scenario.
He said the party leadership had earlier faced these “politically-motivated” cases for a whole decade and was ready to face them again.
He said President Zardari had been elected with two-thirds majority and enjoyed support of the masses and therefore there was no reason for demanding his resignation.
Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has hailed the decision of the Supreme Court regarding the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), says a handout.
He said as a result of this decision, supremacy of law would be strengthened and the process of accountability would be effective and transparent.
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/national/12-opposition-hails-decision-on-nro--07

NRO Judgment - DAWN Editorial

NRO judgment
Dawn Editorial
Thursday, 17 Dec, 2009 08:00 AM PST
Cut through the legalese and understanding the effect of last night’s Supreme Court judgment on the NRO becomes rather straightforward: for all intents and purposes the NRO never existed and the cases withdrawn, the investigations prematurely ended, and the convictions set aside as a result of the NRO have returned to their pre-Oct 5, 2007 status. But, giving cheer to those standing firm on the principles of justice and perhaps sending shivers down the spines of the NRO’s erstwhile beneficiaries, the Supreme Court has also demonstrated its resolve to ensure that the legal process will not continue desultorily and indefinitely. The court has ordered that the NRO-related cases and investigations are to be concluded expeditiously under the watchful gaze of the superior judiciary.
We are grateful that the chaos predicted, perhaps self-servingly, in some quarters is not immediately evident as a result of yesterday’s judgment. There should never have been any fear of that, but in a country where law and politics have so unfortunately been intertwined on so many occasions in the past, anything possibly impacting on the legal status of the holders of high office, especially if they happen to be civilian, inevitably creates political uncertainty. But now that the court has pronounced its judgment and demonstrated a fair and just interpretation of the law and the constitution, it falls upon the former beneficiaries of the NRO to do their part and defend themselves in a court of law. All the NRO beneficiaries have consistently put forward the defence that the cases and investigations against them were politically motivated and have no basis in fact. So now it is incumbent upon them to come forward and prove their innocence in a court of law. There is no dictator on the scene, no kangaroo courts, no government that is bent on eliminating its rivals politically — in short, there is no excuse for the defendants to avoid seeking what they have claimed justice ought to give them.
A word on the president and his entanglement in the NRO is also in order. During the hearings in the Supreme Court, fresh questions were raised about the status of cases in foreign jurisdictions involving alleged graft and a conviction in absentia. The president’s spokespersons have dismissed those allegations and focused on the immunity against criminal proceedings granted to the president under Article 248 of the constitution. Settled legal issues or not, the fact is it is not in the federation’s interest to have Mr Zardari’s legal status as the President of Pakistan in question. So, smart politics demands that the president find a way to put to rest any lingering doubts and, perhaps more importantly, turn the nation’s attention to where it rightly belongs: on parliament.
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/19-nro-judgment-hh-01

'Living on the edge' by Dr Murad Moosa Khan

A very thought provoking article from Dr. Murad Moosa Khan, professor of psychiatry, Aga Khan Hospital, Karachi has appeared in the 'DAWN' of 23rd January 2008 under the title "Living on the edge." I reproduce below extracts from the article for all of us to ponder over the contents and think about the way out of the present crisis for the sake of our people.

"The present crisis is taking a heavy toll on the mental health of the people of Pakistan. We know that even during so-called normal times, the mental health of Pakistanis is severely compromised.

We have one of the highest rates of depression and anxiety (known as Common Mental Disorders or CMDs) in the developing world with an estimated 34% or 25
million of our adult population being affected. If cases of drug abuse, psychosomatic disorders and child psychiatry are added to the list, this figure would increase substantially.

Unlike the West, factors associated with CMDs inPakistan include a high degree of social adversity faced by the population who have to contend with poverty, unemployment, the lack of housing, a severely compromised position for women, the deteriorating law and order situation and poor access to justice.

Since the political crisis that started in March last year, there has been a strong sense of insecurity and uncertainty amongst the people who appear to be living
on the edge perpetually. The subsequent events of May 12, Oct 18, Nov 3 and Dec 27 have further frayed their nerves. There is a sense of hopelessness and helplessness (bezaari and bebassi).

They are terrified of suicide bombings which have become an every day occurrence, and fear going out. They have erratic electricity, there is food crisis in the country, poverty is increasing day by day and there is a serious law and order situation in Pakistan.

The current crisis is having a very negative effect on our children. Children hear and see what is happening around them. They hear their parents and elders discuss the grave political situation. This can leave a scar on their innocent psyche and affect them for years. This may become apparent in their behaviour, affect their relationships and their academic performance. It can lead to all kinds of psychological problems, from post-traumatic stress disorders to depression and anxiety, to alcohol and drug abuse.

This madness and needless psychological trauma that our people are being subjected to has to stop. Our leaders have to step back and think of the trauma they
are causing, the effects of which will last for years to come. They need to read and to head the lessons of history. Above all, they need to respect the sanctity of human life.

John Adam Smith (1723-1790) the Scottish economist and philosopher wrote: “No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the greater part of the members are poor and miserable.”

Leaders in Islamabad ought to reflect on Adam Smith’s words. If they are able to do that, they may yet prevent the needless psychological trauma being inflicted on the already fragile and abused psyche of the Pakistani people. If they do not, neither the people nor the history will ever forgive them."

Quaid-e-Azam on Pakistan

'The Story of Pakistan, its struggle and its achievement, is the very story of great human ideals, struggling to survive in the face of great odds and difficulties.'
-Jinnah, founder of Pakistan

Absence Of Genuine Leadership And Good Governance In Pakistan By Mehroz Siraj Sadruddin 25 January, 2009 Countercurrents.org The political setup that we see functioning in the country today was originally created under the shadows of the influence a dead Benazir Bhutto had started to wield upon the common man in this country. It has been more than ten months since the February 18 elections, and nearly six months since General Musharraf tendered his resignation from the Presidency. However, over this time period, the nation has been encountering one crisis after the other. The political turmoil since the last general elections has had a huge impact on the national economy in general, and inflation in particular. Overall inflation has touched 25 per cent and the US dollar has gone up from Rs 62 to Rs 80, a near 36 per cent increase. This has caused major economic and financial problems for the country over the last ten months. Since assuming office in March last year, the PPP led government has indeed devoted very little time to the real issues of the people, as most of the time and resources were invested in dealing with political adversaries, Nawaz Sharif and Pervez Musharraf. The government has failed to fulfil nearly all of its election promises. The killers of Miss Benazir Bhutto are still very much at large. Zaradari has reneged on his earlier promises of restoring the 59 superior judges fired by Musharraf in November 2007. In his first address to the parliament and even since the Feb 18 elections, Mr. Zardari had been talking about removing the 17th Amendment from the constitution and repealing Article 58 2(b), which gives the president the authority to dissolve the government and the parliament. However, despite the speeches and rhetoric, there has been no legislative work being done in order to achieve these targets. The controversial and unconstitutional National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) brought Mr Zardari back into the political realm. Since he assumed the presidency, defying all the rules for effective governance and strengthening democracy, he has balked away from giving his predecessor and members of his regime, a fair trial with regards to cases of corruption, treason and tampering with the constitution, amidst a whole host of other cases which were being heard in the superior courts before emergency rule was proclaimed in November 2007. A report in the November issue of the Herald magazine said that the total amount of bank loans sanctioned during the Musharraf-Aziz government, is more than US $10 billion Why have members of the last military-civilian regime not been tried in independent courts on the accounts of corruption, contempt of court and committing treason? All these facts make me ask a fundamental question, where is the government and what is it doing to end the current political crisis prevailing in the country? The government of President Zardari and Prime Minister Gillani is being widely seen as inept and corrupt and an institution where appointments are being made on the basis of cronyism, rather than genuine merits. It has been seen that Mr Zardari has erected his own group of associates from within the PPP, most of who were not close enough with the late Benazir Bhutto. The way this government has been dealing with the menace of terrorism and religious extremism, also leaves a lot to be desired. On the orders from Washington, fresh military operations are being launched in FATA and the tribal areas as the option for diplomacy and negotiations is being further pushed to the sidelines. The government has failed to understand that it is only through negotiation, dialogue and the socio-economic emancipation of the people in FATA, that terrorism can be defeated. Pakistan at the moment needs a strong leader who is a symbol of national unity and can champion the cause of human rights for the oppressed communities and minorities. The leadership vacuum left behind by Benazir Bhutto is still very much there. However, if the current government continues along the path that it currently seems to be treading upon, then we have every reason to believe that the problems and challenges that our country today faces, both, internal aand external, would further aggravate with the passage of time. Absence Of Genuine Leadership And Good Governance In Pakistan
http://www.defence.pk/forums/national-political-issues/20509-absence-genuine-leadership-good-governance-pakistan.html

The Unwritten Script after President Zardari

Dec 4, 2009
By Shaheen Sehbai
WASHINGTON: As the super large bench of the Supreme Court of Pakistan begins the fateful hearing of the NRO on December 7, the writing on the wall is getting clear that Pakistan is quickly entering the post-Zardari phase.In this scenario either Mr Asif Ali Zardari will ultimately throw in the towel and retire overseas or he will stay bunkered as a lame duck inside the presidency facing public humiliation in the courts, the media and before the people every day.In both cases the power will shift to the Prime Minister who will then become the focus of the media, the nation and the world. How he delivers will determine where the democratic system goes.That the noose around Mr Zardari’s neck (this expression should not be taken in physical terms as many do in his camp) is tightening is evident from the panic and desperation inside the presidency where the entire focus is on how to escape the many high-speed freight trains, without working brakes, charging in his direction from many directions. These trains are no fiction or a product of any one’s imagination. The fact that Mr Zardari got so desperate and cornered that he hit out at some media persons, including me, as a counter attack in his famous address to the uninterested PPP followers at the Mazar of the Quaid-e-Azam, shows that he has no plan and vision to stop these oncoming train wrecks.The fact that the 007-Geneva operation ordered by Mr Zardari and conducted by an otherwise respected Wajid Shamsul Hasan has left the country with the thought that the gang sitting in Islamabad is on the run and trying to cover up its tracks, cannot be denied. The fact that the boxes of hard evidence of the Swiss money laundering cases collected in Geneva and airlifted to London the same day have disappeared and no one is ready to own them, despite mute claims by NAB, shows how scared the Zardari camp is fearing the fate which is in store. That these cases may be reopened is a high possibility. The fact that Zardari’s closest ministers and cronies (Babar Awan for one) are now being publicly named in multi-million rupees scandals, not by the media but by affected parties in the highest courts of the country, shows they will also soon be in the dock inside crowded court rooms, if they do not pay off their way to escape overseas.The fact that a front-man of Mr Zardari has come on record to state that he had actually bought the Islamabad land years ago and kept it as an “amanat” (sacred trust) of Mr Zardari has confirmed that the president has been involved in such deals but has been hiding behind his political facade. That his involvement is a direct and blatant case of conflict of interest is obvious.The fact that Zardari’s point-man for Pakistan Steel, infamous business manipulator Riaz Laljee, has escaped from the country and is now enjoying life in Dubai, where he was last seen with the step brother of Mr Zardari, Tuppee (his nick name), in a super latest sports Rolls Royce driven by Tuppee and with three sensational beauties, in front of Dubai’s biggest shopping mall, indicates these guys have made enough money to throw it publicly and worry about no one. That Riaz Laljee was not put on the ECL was also noted by Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Choudhry in a recent suo moto case on the Pakistan Steel.The fact that as the NRO’s fate is decided in coming days and weeks, many more cases challenging the qualification of President Zardari will be filed and heard by the Supreme Court is ominous. The fact that all the other cronies of Mr Zardari who are not protected by any immunity will have to face the music once the NRO is struck down as a bad law which violated the constitution, ab initio, is already causing panic in the presidential camp and rats are jumping the sinking ship. Dr Asim Hussain of NRB and Petroleum Ministry is the latest example. Laljee has already escaped. The fact that Zardari’s closest partner Zulfikar Mirza has already launched the Sindh card by picking up the ridiculous non-issue of violation of the sanctity of the Sindhi cap in a Geo TV talk show, shows how bankrupt the presidential camp is to defend itself. Will saving the Sindhi cap, which no one ever wants to desecrate or insult, save Mr Zardari and will Sindh pick up arms to separate from Pakistan for the ajrak or cap, is not even a debatable question.The fact that the military and civilian establishment has now started dealing full time with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, as the man who is and should run the country, has already put in effect the so-called and dreaded Minus-1 formula in which Mr Zardari stays as a Rafiq Tarar with no direct say in government affairs, or goes away if he is allowed to. The fact that during his historic Afghan strategy Obama speech and interviews later by Hillary Clinton nowhere was the government or Zardari offered any support or protection, but always it was the democratic system which was mentioned and was to be protected.The fact is that despite all his political gimmickry and manipulation, Zardari had to sign away his powers to keep the nuclear button under his thumb and the NCA was transferred to the PM. This was a clear message to the presidency that powers could be taken away from him, despite his staying in that fortified palace, no matter what his political standing. The same may happen with the 17th Amendment powers and appointment of services chiefs etc. It is now clear that no one wants to trust or deal with Mr Zardari as a responsible leader of the country.There may be many more such facts, which have eaten away Mr Zardari’s moral, political and executive authority to call the shots, as he had been doing in the last 18 months. His power tenure is almost over and the country has to move on.At such a crucial stage enters Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani with full powers. Here lies the most serious challenge to the country’s developing and nascent democratic set-up. Mr Gilani will have to show that he is up to the job and will have to quickly get out of the shadows of Mr Zardari to remove the impression that he was being remote-controlled from the presidency.For this the script writers already have a sketch of how he should move quickly, if he really wants to save the system and take control. This unwritten script for Mr Gilani could be the ultimate yardstick to judge where Pakistan will go.Firstly, without losing a day, Mr Gilani will have to get rid of the tainted and corrupt cronies of Mr Zardari from his cabinet. This may be a little unpalatable for the presidency but the PM has to put his foot down.Then he has to get the 17th Amendment out of his way as quickly as possible and get the PML-N leadership on board in his cabinet, with important portfolios so that the much desired and much needed credibility and consensus, backed by the force of a moral popular authority, is built.The next task of Mr Gilani would be to let the chips fall where they may by allowing the courts to judge the NRO beneficiaries on their merits, acquit or punish them. Similar should be the case for all cases against the president and if he is disqualified, Mr Gilani should be ready to nominate and get a new president elected, as soon as possible, someone with integrity and having a moral face to provide respect to the system.The most important task of the PM would be to show good governance and cut corruption. For this he needs the services of the best available, clean and honest, bureaucrats from the civilian and military bureaucracy, whether in active service or retired. He still has a small reservoir of upright and competent civil servants who may be ready to provide stability and vision to his government, despite the pressure of political jugglers sitting as ministers. The present set-up of challenged bureaucrats has to go immediately with Mrs Nargis Sethi, (nothing against her personally) posted out to an appropriate position but a seasoned, competent and respected officer brought in her place to handle the bureaucracy. If Mr Gilani does not handle this properly his government will soon fall short of space and then the entire democratic and elected set-up will be attacked by all the hawks in the political, civil and military establishment, saying the politicians are simply incapable of running the country.Mr Gilani has also to convince Mian Nawaz Sharif to immediately get himself elected to the National Assembly and sit in the Parliament to lend it strength and support. He should be included in top decision-making and a team of experts, technocrats, retired judges, executives and others may be formed on the side as a super think tank to provide the vision and strategic depth to the elected government. This is critical as Pakistan has to face the new American strategy in Afghanistan, fight off the terrorists at home, control the desperate helplessness of the people who have lost all hope and are being crushed under the burden of spiralling inflation and unemployment. The money flowing into Pakistan has to be spent for the people, in a transparent and effective manner.Mr Zardari has already wasted his chance to become a national visionary leader who could take the country forward. But as I had stated before he ran for the office of the president, he was just not fit for that job, did not have the capacity to handle or grow into it and he would drown in his own corrupt juices, trying to extricate himself. The more he did that, the more the noose tightened around his neck and he is now about to hang himself. That was a political prediction, which is about to come true in a matter of days or weeks.But it is now Mr Gilani’s neck on the line and he has to rise and fill the big shoes. He needs the support of all those who want the democratic system to work and the PM has to show vision, tolerance and patience to accommodate all points of view. He has to be upright and transparent in his dealings. Mr Gilani has tons of unwanted debris lying at his doorstep, thanks to Mr Zardari’s tunnel vision, arrogance, corruption and incompetence.
(Received in email to good governance forum)